Opponent scouting
Chicago White Sox lineup
Projected from the last three weeks of starting lineups, weighted toward the most recent games. Rows below the line are bench and platoon bats. Season lines are official MLB stats through 9/3/2026.
Biggest threat
Vargas
.389 xwOBA · 29 HR
Next two
Murakami, Antonacci
.355 / .342 xwOBA
Lefty bats in the nine
5 of 9
2 switch · rest right-handed
Pitches modeled
619,946
every 2026 MLB pitch through 9/3/2026
Season line and where they’re vulnerable xRV/100 vs league by pitch group: blue = pitcher wins, red = hitter does damage
Pitcher winsHitter damage
| vs RHP | vs LHP | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Hitter | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | xwOBA | vs R / vs L | K% | Chase | FB | BRK | OFF | FB | BRK | OFF |
| 1 | Sam AntonacciLF · L | 481 | .265/.364/.386 | .342 | .357 / .282 | 16% | 21% | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | 0.0 | +0.1 |
| 2 | Munetaka Murakami1B · L | 460 | .213/.354/.481 | .355 | .363 / .336 | 34% | 24% | +1.4 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| 3 | Miguel Vargas3B · R | 609 | .251/.363/.484 | .389 | .372 / .431 | 17% | 22% | +1.1 | +1.4 | +1.0 | +1.7 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| 4 | Andrew BenintendiDH · L | 420 | .243/.303/.420 | .309 | .314 / .270 | 23% | 32% | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Braden MontgomeryRF · S | 295 | .224/.315/.351 | .330 | .348 / .281 | 20% | 26% | +0.5 | +0.1 | -0.3 | +0.5 | -0.1 | -0.7 |
| 6 | Colson MontgomerySS · L | 558 | .213/.294/.432 | .303 | .289 / .335 | 34% | 33% | -0.4 | -0.8 | +1.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| 7 | Chase Meidroth2B · R | 564 | .273/.346/.400 | .300 | .287 / .331 | 22% | 28% | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 8 | Tristan PetersCF · L | 423 | .278/.344/.466 | .320 | .327 / .271 | 18% | 33% | +0.1 | -0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | -0.3 | +0.2 |
| 9 | Drew RomoC · S | 203 | .141/.239/.288 | .264 | .262 / .273 | 23% | 35% | -0.2 | -0.4 | -1.1 | +0.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 |
| Jake RogersC · R | 159 | .172/.278/.306 | .272 | .254 / .329 | 29% | 26% | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.2 | +0.4 | -0.4 | -0.1 | |
| Randal GrichukRF · R | 218 | .268/.294/.536 | .330 | .284 / .353 | 24% | 31% | -0.6 | +0.7 | +0.4 | -0.1 | +0.5 | +0.7 | |
| Brenton DoyleCF · R | 183 | .212/.264/.300 | .245 | .233 / .262 | 32% | 31% | -0.7 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.4 | |
| Luisangel AcuñaSS · R | 207 | .237/.268/.273 | .267 | .276 / .256 | 19% | 34% | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.9 | |
Heat maps catcher's view · middle 3×3 is the zone · outer ring is the chase band
Pitcher winsHitter damage
Whiff map: darker = more swing-and-missSam Antonacci L · .342
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Munetaka Murakami L · .355
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Miguel Vargas R · .389
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Andrew Benintendi L · .309
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Braden Montgomery S · .330
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Colson Montgomery L · .303
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Chase Meidroth R · .300
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Tristan Peters L · .320
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Drew Romo S · .264
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Jake Rogers R · .272
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Randal Grichuk R · .330
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Brenton Doyle R · .245
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Luisangel Acuña R · .267
Damage v RHP
Whiff v RHP
Damage v LHP
Game 1 · 9/4/2026 · vs Erick Fedde
Zebby Matthews #52 · RHP
19 GS · 112.0 IP · 4.58 ERA · 467 BF · K 19.9% · BB 6.9% · xwOBA .326 · CSW 25.9%
Arsenal season, both hands
| Pitch | v RHH | v LHH | MPH | IVB | HB | Whiff R/L | RV/100 R/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam | 35% | 37% | 95.2 | 16.1 | 9.0 | 16%/9% | -0.1/+0.2 |
| Slider | 30% | 16% | 87.2 | 2.8 | -3.4 | 35%/31% | +0.6/+0.4 |
| Changeup | 2% | 21% | 86.8 | 4.4 | 14.7 | 24%/20% | -0.4/-0.7 |
| Curve | 12% | 12% | 79.9 | -9.0 | -8.3 | 35%/29% | +0.1/0.0 |
| Cutter | 11% | 12% | 90.7 | 9.4 | -0.3 | 19%/12% | -0.2/-0.5 |
| Sinker | 10% | 1% | 95.1 | 11.2 | 15.5 | 17%/10% | -0.1/-0.2 |
Season mix vs this lineup-0.3
With the plan-0.2
Gain+0.13
Projected runs saved per 100 pitches vs a league-average matchup. The gain is the model scoring its own picks, so read it as an upper bound.
Movement inches, pitcher's view
Mix vs CWS PA-weighted
SeasonPlan
- More slider: 19% → 24%
- Less changeup: 17% → 14%
- Toughest outs: Murakami, Vargas, B. Montgomery
Count plan his usual pitch → the plan's pick for this lineup
| Count | vs LHH | vs RHH |
|---|---|---|
| Even 0-0, 1-1 |
4-Seam 34% → Slider | 4-Seam 34% → Sinker |
| Ahead 0-1 |
4-Seam 38% → Curve | 4-Seam 30% → Cutter |
| Behind 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 |
4-Seam 44% → Cutter | 4-Seam keep it |
| Two strikes 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2 |
4-Seam 36% → Slider | Slider 44% → Curve |
Times through the order xwOBA allowed vs league
| Trip | BF | xwOBA | League | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 171 | .303 | .310 | 24% |
| 2nd | 172 | .346 | .324 | 19% |
| 3rd+ | 125 | .329 | .333 | 16% |
No trip stands out against league (+22 second time, -5 third). Manage by pitch count and how the stuff looks.
Hitter-by-hitter attack plan
Attack locationDamage zone, stay out
Pitcher winsHitter damage
Map shows each hitter's damage vs the pitch group of his #1 attack pitch1
AntonacciLHB · .357 v RHP
-0.6 R/100
-0.6 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Slider down & away
Two-strike put-away
Slider 15% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Takes early (23% 0-0 swing). Steal strike one in the zone with the slider.
Disciplined: 21% chase; make him earn it in the zone
2
MurakamiLHB · .363 v RHP
-1.4 R/100
-1.4 R/100
v breaking
Attack
Slider down & away
4-Seam down & away
Two-strike put-away
Slider 41% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Neutral 0-0 approach (32% swing). Get ahead with the slider on the edges.
Disciplined: 24% chase; make him earn it in the zone
3
VargasRHB · .372 v RHP
-0.9 R/100
-0.9 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Slider down & away
Two-strike put-away
Cutter 21% proj. whiff
Avoid
Slider down, in the zone
First pitch
Neutral 0-0 approach (32% swing). Get ahead with the sinker on the edges.
Disciplined: 22% chase; make him earn it in the zone
4
BenintendiLHB · .314 v RHP
-0.1 R/100
-0.1 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Slider down & away
Two-strike put-away
Slider 26% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Neutral 0-0 approach (36% swing). Get ahead with the slider on the edges.
5
B. MontgomerySHB · .348 v RHP
-0.8 R/100
-0.8 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Slider down & away
Two-strike put-away
Slider 26% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (39% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the slider.
Disciplined: 26% chase; make him earn it in the zone
6
C. MontgomeryLHB · .289 v RHP
+0.1 R/100
+0.1 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Slider down & away
Two-strike put-away
Slider 52% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (42% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the slider.
7
MeidrothRHB · .287 v RHP
+0.7 R/100
+0.7 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Slider down & away
Two-strike put-away
Curve 29% proj. whiff
Avoid
Slider down, in the zone
First pitch
Takes early (16% 0-0 swing). Steal strike one in the zone with the sinker.
8
PetersLHB · .327 v RHP
-0.2 R/100
-0.2 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Slider down & away
Two-strike put-away
Slider 25% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (44% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the slider.
9
RomoSHB · .262 v RHP
+0.4 R/100
+0.4 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Slider down & away
Two-strike put-away
Slider 45% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (41% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the changeup.
Expands: 35% chase vs 30% league
Game 2 · 9/5/2026 · vs Anthony Kay
Taj Bradley #26 · RHP
27 GS · 154.1 IP · 3.85 ERA · 654 BF · K 27.2% · BB 10.1% · xwOBA .306 · CSW 27.1%
Arsenal season, both hands
| Pitch | v RHH | v LHH | MPH | IVB | HB | Whiff R/L | RV/100 R/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam | 45% | 47% | 97.1 | 18.3 | 5.7 | 12%/13% | 0.0/-0.2 |
| Cutter | 34% | 17% | 89.7 | 4.1 | -4.6 | 35%/30% | +0.7/+0.9 |
| Splitter | 11% | 27% | 91.5 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 22%/38% | -0.1/+0.4 |
| Curve | 9% | 9% | 82.6 | -12.7 | -3.8 | 40%/26% | -0.5/-0.7 |
Season mix vs this lineup-0.3
With the plan-0.1
Gain+0.15
Projected runs saved per 100 pitches vs a league-average matchup. The gain is the model scoring its own picks, so read it as an upper bound.
Movement inches, pitcher's view
Mix vs CWS PA-weighted
SeasonPlan
- More cutter: 21% → 25%
- Less 4-seam: 47% → 42%
- Toughest outs: Murakami, B. Montgomery, Vargas
Count plan his usual pitch → the plan's pick for this lineup
| Count | vs LHH | vs RHH |
|---|---|---|
| Even 0-0, 1-1 |
4-Seam 47% → Cutter | 4-Seam 47% → Cutter |
| Ahead 0-1 |
4-Seam 48% → Cutter | 4-Seam keep it |
| Behind 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 |
4-Seam 60% → Splitter | 4-Seam keep it |
| Two strikes 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2 |
4-Seam 39% → Splitter | 4-Seam 37% → Cutter |
Times through the order xwOBA allowed vs league
| Trip | BF | xwOBA | League | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 243 | .299 | .310 | 27% |
| 2nd | 243 | .284 | .324 | 29% |
| 3rd+ | 168 | .349 | .333 | 26% |
Third time through he allows .349 xwOBA vs league .333 (+15). Have the bullpen ready before his third trip, around batter 19.
Hitter-by-hitter attack plan
Attack locationDamage zone, stay out
Pitcher winsHitter damage
Map shows each hitter's damage vs the pitch group of his #1 attack pitch1
AntonacciLHB · .357 v RHP
-0.5 R/100
-0.5 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Splitter down & in
Two-strike put-away
Splitter 28% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Takes early (23% 0-0 swing). Steal strike one in the zone with the cutter.
Disciplined: 21% chase; make him earn it in the zone
2
MurakamiLHB · .363 v RHP
-1.4 R/100
-1.4 R/100
v offspeed
Attack
Splitter down & in
4-Seam down & away
Two-strike put-away
Splitter 48% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Neutral 0-0 approach (32% swing). Get ahead with the cutter on the edges.
Disciplined: 24% chase; make him earn it in the zone
3
VargasRHB · .372 v RHP
-0.7 R/100
-0.7 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
Cutter down & away
4-Seam down & away
Two-strike put-away
Cutter 36% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Neutral 0-0 approach (32% swing). Get ahead with the cutter on the edges.
Disciplined: 22% chase; make him earn it in the zone
4
BenintendiLHB · .314 v RHP
+0.1 R/100
+0.1 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Splitter down & in
Two-strike put-away
Splitter 42% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Neutral 0-0 approach (36% swing). Get ahead with the cutter on the edges.
5
B. MontgomerySHB · .348 v RHP
-0.7 R/100
-0.7 R/100
v offspeed
Attack
Splitter down & in
4-Seam down & away
Two-strike put-away
Splitter 36% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (39% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the splitter.
Disciplined: 26% chase; make him earn it in the zone
6
C. MontgomeryLHB · .289 v RHP
0.0 R/100
0.0 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Cutter up
Two-strike put-away
Curve 48% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (42% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the curve.
7
MeidrothRHB · .287 v RHP
+0.7 R/100
+0.7 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
Cutter down & away
4-Seam down & away
Two-strike put-away
Curve 33% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Takes early (16% 0-0 swing). Steal strike one in the zone with the cutter.
8
PetersLHB · .327 v RHP
-0.2 R/100
-0.2 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam down & away
Splitter down & in
Two-strike put-away
Splitter 33% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (44% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the splitter.
9
RomoSHB · .262 v RHP
+0.6 R/100
+0.6 R/100
v offspeed
Attack
Splitter down & in
4-Seam down & away
Two-strike put-away
Splitter 47% proj. whiff
Avoid
Curve down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (41% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the splitter.
Expands: 35% chase vs 30% league
Game 3 · 9/6/2026 · vs Bryan Hudson
Bailey Ober #17 · RHP
21 GS · 113.1 IP · 4.37 ERA · 477 BF · K 16.6% · BB 6.5% · xwOBA .331 · CSW 25.0%
Arsenal season, both hands
| Pitch | v RHH | v LHH | MPH | IVB | HB | Whiff R/L | RV/100 R/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 25% | 40% | 82.7 | 6.5 | 18.5 | 26%/21% | -0.9/-1.3 |
| 4-Seam | 29% | 35% | 88.0 | 16.3 | 6.9 | 21%/10% | +0.3/+0.3 |
| Slider | 19% | 16% | 82.3 | 6.5 | -4.5 | 16%/16% | +0.2/+0.3 |
| Sweeper | 20% | 6% | 76.0 | 1.6 | -12.2 | 42%/21% | +0.6/+0.7 |
| Sinker | 6% | 0% | 88.5 | 10.1 | 13.5 | 10%/12% | -0.6/-0.3 |
| Curve | 0% | 2% | 72.7 | -8.2 | -10.4 | 28%/21% | -0.1/-0.3 |
Season mix vs this lineup-0.6
With the plan-0.3
Gain+0.21
Projected runs saved per 100 pitches vs a league-average matchup. The gain is the model scoring its own picks, so read it as an upper bound.
Movement inches, pitcher's view
Mix vs CWS PA-weighted
SeasonPlan
- More slider: 17% → 21%
- More 4-seam: 34% → 36%
- Less changeup: 37% → 28%
- Toughest outs: Murakami, Vargas, Antonacci
Count plan his usual pitch → the plan's pick for this lineup
| Count | vs LHH | vs RHH |
|---|---|---|
| Even 0-0, 1-1 |
4-Seam 36% → Changeup | 4-Seam 30% → Sweeper |
| Ahead 0-1 |
Changeup 42% → Sweeper | Sweeper 24% → 4-Seam |
| Behind 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 |
Changeup 43% → Slider | 4-Seam keep it |
| Two strikes 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2 |
Changeup keep it | Changeup 32% → Sweeper |
Times through the order xwOBA allowed vs league
| Trip | BF | xwOBA | League | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 189 | .287 | .310 | 17% |
| 2nd | 188 | .374 | .324 | 18% |
| 3rd+ | 101 | .332 | .333 | 14% |
The damage comes the second time through: .374 xwOBA vs league .324 (+49). Change his look for the second trip (different first pitch, lean on his best pitch); the third trip (.332) is league-average.
Hitter-by-hitter attack plan
Attack locationDamage zone, stay out
Pitcher winsHitter damage
Map shows each hitter's damage vs the pitch group of his #1 attack pitch1
AntonacciLHB · .357 v RHP
-0.8 R/100
-0.8 R/100
v breaking
Attack
Slider down & away
4-Seam up & away
Two-strike put-away
Changeup 14% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Takes early (23% 0-0 swing). Steal strike one in the zone with the slider.
Disciplined: 21% chase; make him earn it in the zone
2
MurakamiLHB · .363 v RHP
-1.6 R/100
-1.6 R/100
v breaking
Attack
Slider down & away
4-Seam up & away
Two-strike put-away
Changeup 33% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Neutral 0-0 approach (32% swing). Get ahead with the slider on the edges.
Disciplined: 24% chase; make him earn it in the zone
3
VargasRHB · .372 v RHP
-1.2 R/100
-1.2 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam away
Sweeper down & away
Two-strike put-away
Changeup 29% proj. whiff
Avoid
Slider down, in the zone
First pitch
Neutral 0-0 approach (32% swing). Get ahead with the sweeper on the edges.
Disciplined: 22% chase; make him earn it in the zone
4
BenintendiLHB · .314 v RHP
-0.3 R/100
-0.3 R/100
v breaking
Attack
Slider down & away
4-Seam up & away
Two-strike put-away
Changeup 27% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Neutral 0-0 approach (36% swing). Get ahead with the slider on the edges.
5
B. MontgomerySHB · .348 v RHP
-0.8 R/100
-0.8 R/100
v breaking
Attack
Slider down & away
4-Seam up & away
Two-strike put-away
Changeup 21% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (39% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the sweeper.
Disciplined: 26% chase; make him earn it in the zone
6
C. MontgomeryLHB · .289 v RHP
-0.3 R/100
-0.3 R/100
v breaking
Attack
Slider down & away
4-Seam up & away
Two-strike put-away
Sweeper 43% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (42% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the sweeper.
7
MeidrothRHB · .287 v RHP
+0.6 R/100
+0.6 R/100
v fastballs
Attack
4-Seam up & away
Sweeper down & away
Two-strike put-away
Sweeper 35% proj. whiff
Avoid
Slider down, in the zone
First pitch
Takes early (16% 0-0 swing). Steal strike one in the zone with the sweeper.
8
PetersLHB · .327 v RHP
-0.6 R/100
-0.6 R/100
v breaking
Attack
Slider down & away
4-Seam up & away
Two-strike put-away
Changeup 18% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (44% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the sweeper.
9
RomoSHB · .262 v RHP
+0.3 R/100
+0.3 R/100
v breaking
Attack
Slider down & away
4-Seam up & away
Two-strike put-away
Sweeper 36% proj. whiff
Avoid
Changeup down, in the zone
First pitch
Swings early (41% 0-0) without much damage. Expand early with the sweeper.
Expands: 35% chase vs 30% league
Late innings
Bullpen matchup matrix
Each cell is a reliever's projected runs saved per 100 pitches against that hitter, using his plan-adjusted mix. Workload columns show recent pitches and rest going into the series, so leverage arms are lined up with who is actually available.
Pitcher winsHitter damage
Letter under the value is the reliever's best pitch for that hitter| Reliever | T | AntonacciL | MurakamiL | VargasR | BenintendiL | B. MontgomeryS | C. MontgomeryL | MeidrothR | PetersL | RomoS | J. RogersR | GrichukR | DoyleR | AcuñaR | Avg | P 1d·3d·7d | Rest | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Morris | R | +0.1 FF |
-1.0 ST |
-0.4 FF |
+0.7 FF |
-0.2 CH |
+1.2 FF |
+1.2 FF |
+0.4 FF |
+1.1 FF |
+0.9 FF |
+1.2 FF |
+1.6 ST |
+1.1 FF |
+0.6 | 0 · 29 · 56 | 2d | Available |
| Jeff Hoffman | R | 0.0 SL |
-0.3 SL |
-0.8 SL |
+0.5 SL |
0.0 SL |
+0.7 SL |
+0.9 SL |
+0.2 SL |
+0.9 FS |
+0.9 SL |
+0.3 SI |
+1.9 SL |
+1.3 SL |
+0.5 | 0 · 12 · 25 | 1d | Available |
| Yoendrys Gómez | R | -0.9 ST |
-1.6 ST |
-1.4 FC |
-0.4 SI |
-1.1 ST |
+0.2 ST |
+0.3 FC |
-0.6 ST |
0.0 CH |
+0.1 ST |
+0.2 SI |
+0.9 ST |
+0.3 ST |
-0.3 | 0 · 15 · 40 | 1d | Available |
| Taylor Rogers | L | +0.7 ST |
+0.6 ST |
-1.4 ST |
+1.0 ST |
-0.2 ST |
+0.6 ST |
0.0 ST |
+1.1 ST |
+0.2 ST |
0.0 ST |
-0.4 FC |
+0.9 ST |
+0.4 ST |
+0.3 | 0 · 7 · 45 | 1d | Available |
| Tommy Nance | R | -0.4 SL |
-0.6 SL |
-1.0 CU |
-0.2 SL |
-0.3 SL |
+0.5 SL |
+0.7 CU |
+0.1 CU |
+0.1 CU |
+0.8 SL |
+0.1 SI |
+1.8 SL |
+1.2 SL |
+0.2 | 0 · 33 · 59 | 1d | Available |
| Travis Adams | R | -0.3 SL |
-0.9 SL |
-1.0 FC |
+0.2 CH |
-0.1 CH |
0.0 SL |
+0.7 CH |
-0.1 SL |
+0.8 CH |
+0.4 SL |
+0.5 SI |
+1.3 SL |
+0.8 SL |
+0.2 | 0 · 12 · 38 | 1d | Available |
| Kody Funderburk | L | +0.6 SI |
-0.1 SI |
-1.6 FC |
+1.0 FC |
-0.1 CH |
+0.3 FC |
+0.1 FC |
+0.7 SI |
+0.3 FC |
-0.1 FC |
+0.1 FC |
+0.8 FC |
+0.7 FC |
+0.2 | 0 · 29 · 47 | 1d | Available |
| A.J. Minter | L | +0.1 SI |
-1.0 SI |
-1.2 FC |
+0.6 SI |
+0.5 CH |
-0.2 SI |
+0.6 FC |
+0.1 SI |
+0.8 CH |
+0.3 FC |
+0.6 FC |
+1.3 FC |
+1.3 CH |
+0.3 | 0 · 17 · 37 | 1d | Available |
| Garrett Acton | R | -0.4 SL |
-1.1 SL |
-1.0 FF |
0.0 SL |
-0.8 SL |
+0.9 SL |
+0.5 FF |
-0.1 SL |
+0.2 FF |
+0.6 FF |
+0.2 FF |
+1.3 SL |
+0.8 SL |
+0.1 | 0 · 39 · 39 | 2d | Available |
Status going into the series: Down = pitched both of the last two days, 30+ pitches yesterday, or 3 outings in 4 days. Limited = pitched yesterday or 40+ pitches in the last 3 days. Otherwise Available.
Leverage guide best two arms for each bat, and the one to keep away
Antonacci L
T. Rogers (L) · ST+0.7
Funderburk (L) · SI+0.6
Avoid: Gómez (R)-0.9
Murakami L
T. Rogers (L) · ST+0.6
Funderburk (L) · SI-0.1
Avoid: Gómez (R)-1.6
Vargas R
Morris (R) · FF-0.4
Hoffman (R) · SL-0.8
Avoid: Funderburk (L)-1.6
Benintendi L
T. Rogers (L) · ST+1.0
Funderburk (L) · FC+1.0
Avoid: Gómez (R)-0.4
B. Montgomery S
Minter (L) · CH+0.5
Hoffman (R) · SL0.0
Avoid: Gómez (R)-1.1
C. Montgomery L
Morris (R) · FF+1.2
Acton (R) · SL+0.9
Avoid: Minter (L)-0.2
Meidroth R
Morris (R) · FF+1.2
Hoffman (R) · SL+0.9
Avoid: T. Rogers (L)0.0
Peters L
T. Rogers (L) · ST+1.1
Funderburk (L) · SI+0.7
Avoid: Gómez (R)-0.6
Romo S
Morris (R) · FF+1.1
Hoffman (R) · FS+0.9
Avoid: Gómez (R)0.0
J. Rogers R
Morris (R) · FF+0.9
Hoffman (R) · SL+0.9
Avoid: Funderburk (L)-0.1
Grichuk R
Morris (R) · FF+1.2
Minter (L) · FC+0.6
Avoid: T. Rogers (L)-0.4
Doyle R
Hoffman (R) · SL+1.9
Nance (R) · SL+1.8
Avoid: Funderburk (L)+0.8
Acuña R
Hoffman (R) · SL+1.3
Minter (L) · CH+1.3
Avoid: Gómez (R)+0.3
Possible tells
Release check
Each pitch's release height, side and arm angle compared with the pitcher's main fastball in the same game (so rubber moves and park mounds don't count). Gaps are ranked against every MLB pitcher; a pitch is flagged when its release gap or its arm-angle gap is in the top 10% (bold). Statcast sees the arm slot only, not glove, grip or timing, so a flag means "check the video," not "he's tipping."
Dean Kremer RHP
| Pitch vs fastball | How it comes out | Release gap | Gap pct. | Arm angle pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker vs 4-Seam | 4.2 in lower, 4.1 in toward arm side, arm angle 9° lower | 5.8 in | 99th | 99th |
| Slider vs 4-Seam | 1.2 in higher, 1.4 in toward glove side, arm angle 4° higher | 1.8 in | 46th | 67th |
| Splitter vs 4-Seam | 0.8 in toward glove side, arm angle 2° higher | 0.9 in | 19th | 40th |
| Curve vs 4-Seam | 0.5 in toward glove side, arm angle 3° higher | 0.6 in | 8th | 51st |
Travis Adams RHP
| Pitch vs fastball | How it comes out | Release gap | Gap pct. | Arm angle pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup vs 4-Seam | 3.5 in lower, 4.2 in toward glove side, arm angle 4° lower | 5.4 in | 95th | 69th |
| Cutter vs 4-Seam | 0.5 in higher, 1.5 in toward arm side, arm angle 3° higher | 1.6 in | 57th | 60th |
| Slider vs 4-Seam | 1.6 in lower, 0.7 in toward glove side, arm angle 2° higher | 1.8 in | 45th | 41st |
Tommy Nance RHP
Zebby Matthews RHP
| Pitch vs fastball | How it comes out | Release gap | Gap pct. | Arm angle pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker vs 4-Seam | 2.4 in lower, 2.5 in toward arm side, arm angle 6° lower | 3.5 in | 87th | 92nd |
| Cutter vs 4-Seam | 1.9 in lower, 3.2 in toward arm side, arm angle 5° lower | 3.7 in | 89th | 88th |
| Changeup vs 4-Seam | 3.1 in lower, 2.8 in toward arm side, arm angle 6° lower | 4.2 in | 88th | 86th |
| Slider vs 4-Seam | 0.8 in lower, 2.4 in toward arm side, arm angle 2° lower | 2.5 in | 66th | 35th |
| Curve vs 4-Seam | 2.0 in toward arm side, arm angle 1° higher | 2.0 in | 52nd | 25th |
Dean Kremer release vs his fastball that game, pitcher's view
Consistent release across pitch types: Andrew Morris, Kody Funderburk, Yoendrys Gómez, Connor Prielipp, A.J. Minter, Taylor Rogers, Taj Bradley, Jeff Hoffman, Garrett Acton, Bailey Ober.
Development plan · sample
Bailey Ober RHP
A living plan built from his own Statcast data through 9/6/2026: trends, three measurable goals, and a monthly review log. It's a starting point for the conversation with the pitching coach, not a substitute for it.
Strengths
- Sweeper vs RHH: +0.6 runs saved per 100 vs league, 42% whiff per swing.
- Strike-thrower: 6.8% walk rate.
Opportunities
- Changeup vs LHH is thrown 40% of the time but loses 1.3 runs per 100 vs league.
- Second time through: .371 xwOBA vs league .324.
- Strikeout rate 17.0% is below league; two-strike finish has room to grow.
Check first
- 4-Seam velocity is down 1.2 mph (88.5 in Apr to 87.4 in Aug). Check with Sports Science on workload and arm health before reading the results.
- No MLB appearances in June. Confirm the reason (injured list or option) and compare before and after.
Pitch mix by month
Goals
Goal 1
Cut changeup usage vs LHHIt's his least effective pitch to lefties; move those pitches to the 4-seam (35% of his pitches to lefties, +0.3 runs saved per 100 vs league).
Changeup share vs LHH40.3% → target 32.0%
Goal 2
Raise the strikeout rateFinish two-strike counts with the sweeper.
K%17.0% → target 20.0%
Goal 3
Hold up the 2nd time throughShow hitters a different look on the next trip: change the first-pitch mix and lean on the best pitch.
xwOBA, 2nd time through.371 → target .334
Monthly review each goal checked month by month
| Month | Goal 1 Changeup share vs LHH | Goal 2 K% | Goal 3 xwOBA, 2nd time through | BF | K% | BB% | xwOBA | FF mph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | — | 5.9% | — | 17 | 6% | 5.9% | .369 | 89.8 |
| April | 37.5% | 19.9% | .355 | 141 | 20% | 8.5% | .301 | 88.5 |
| May | 45.7% | 13.7% | .456 | 124 | 14% | 4.0% | .346 | 88.3 |
| July | 31.7% | 20.0% | .324 | 85 | 20% | 7.1% | .331 | 87.4 |
| August | 44.7% | 14.4% | .339 | 111 | 14% | 6.3% | .345 | 87.4 |
| September | 38.2% | 28.6% | — | 21 | 29% | 14.3% | .304 | 88.3 |
Targets are set from his own season baseline and league norms. A check means the month met the target.
After the series · 1–2
Plan vs what happened
Every pitch the Twins threw, graded against the pre-series plan. Three questions per pitcher: did he follow the plan, did he execute it, and was the plan right?
Was the plan right?
On-plan pitches+1.775 pitches
Off-plan-0.5367 pitches
Runs saved per 100 pitches on contact quality (green = pitcher won). On-plan means the hitter's attack pitch, thrown in or next to its attack location. On-plan pitches did 2.2 better, but on 75 pitches that is inside the noise (±2.2). A located pitch beats a missed one under any plan, so this is a sanity check, not proof the plan was right.
Cost of mistakes
In damage zones-2.958 pitches
Everywhere else+0.3384 pitches
Staff mistake rate 13% vs 16% expected from season command. With only 58 mistakes the results on them are noise; the rate is the signal.
Swing-and-miss
On-plan whiff21%per swing
Off-plan21%per swing
442 pitches tracked across 3 games.
Lineup projection
G18/9starters
G28/9starters
G38/9starters
Projected nine vs the White Sox' actual starting lineups.
Starter · Game 1 · 9/4/2026
Zebby Matthews
5.0 IP · 4 H · 4 R · 4 ER · 1 BB · 4 K · 3 HR · 84 pitches
Went 5 innings · 4 runs allowed · bullpen allowed 0 · offense scored 1 · L 1–4
Plan in questionLow confidence84 pitches for 15 outs
Followed the planadherence +41% · pass ≥ 35%
Executed locations11% mistakes · pass ≤ 19%
Beat the plan's projection-1.6 R/100 (±2.9)
Mix adherence +41%: toward the plan on slider 25% (usual 20%, plan 25%); away from it on 4-seam 32% (usual 37%, plan 37%), cutter 21% (usual 12%, plan 10%), curve 6% (usual 12%, plan 12%). Mistakes in hitters' damage zones: 11% of pitches vs 17% expected from his season command. Projected with the plan vs these hitters: -0.3 runs/100; contact-quality result -2.0, so -1.6 vs projection (±2.9, low confidence). Attack pitch in its spot (15 pitches) -1.6 runs/100, everything else -2.0. The plan moved his mix 5%; over 84 pitches about 9% moves by chance alone, so mix adherence is a weak read here and locations matter more.
Mix: season, plan, actual
SeasonPlanActual
Where it went
Into that hitter's damage zone
Starter · Game 2 · 9/5/2026
Taj Bradley
5.0 IP · 4 H · 4 R · 4 ER · 2 BB · 6 K · 2 HR · 80 pitches
Went 5 innings · 4 runs allowed · bullpen allowed 0 · offense scored 6 · W 6–4
Went off-planLow confidence
Followed the planadherence -11% · pass ≥ 35%
Executed locations19% mistakes · pass ≤ 18% · close call
Beat the plan's projection-1.2 R/100 (±3.6)
Mix adherence -11%: toward the plan on cutter 28% (usual 22%, plan 26%); away from it on 4-seam 50% (usual 47%, plan 42%), splitter 14% (usual 22%, plan 24%). Mistakes in hitters' damage zones: 19% of pitches vs 16% expected from his season command. Projected with the plan vs these hitters: -0.3 runs/100; contact-quality result -1.5, so -1.2 vs projection (±3.6, low confidence). Attack pitch in its spot (8 pitches) +5.1 runs/100, everything else -2.2. The plan moved his mix 6%; over 80 pitches about 7% moves by chance alone, so mix adherence is a weak read here and locations matter more.
Mix: season, plan, actual
SeasonPlanActual
Where it went
Into that hitter's damage zone
Starter · Game 3 · 9/6/2026
Bailey Ober
4.1 IP · 4 H · 1 R · 1 ER · 3 BB · 6 K · 0 HR · 84 pitches
Left in the 5th · 1 run allowed · bullpen allowed 9 · offense scored 1 · L 1–10
Plan workedLow confidence3 walks84 pitches for 13 outs
Followed the planadherence +57% · pass ≥ 35%
Executed locations6% mistakes · pass ≤ 19%
Beat the plan's projection+1.0 R/100 (±1.4)
Mix adherence +57%: toward the plan on changeup 32% (usual 37%, plan 28%), slider 26% (usual 17%, plan 22%); away from it on 4-seam 26% (usual 34%, plan 36%), sinker 6% (usual 1%, plan 1%). Mistakes in hitters' damage zones: 6% of pitches vs 17% expected from his season command. Projected with the plan vs these hitters: -0.4 runs/100; contact-quality result +0.6, so +1.0 vs projection (±1.4, low confidence). Attack pitch in its spot (20 pitches) +2.6 runs/100, everything else +0.0. The plan moved his mix 10%; over 84 pitches about 8% moves by chance alone, so mix adherence is a weak read here and locations matter more. The plan held, but 3 walks and 84 pitches for 13 outs shortened the outing and put the game on the bullpen.
Mix: season, plan, actual
SeasonPlanActual
Where it went
Into that hitter's damage zone
Bullpen grades each appearance graded on its own
Game 1 · 9/4/2026
T. Rogers Plan in question
1.0 IP · 0 R · 0 ER · 1 BB · 1 K · 19 P
Followed plan+35% · ≥ 35% · close
Executed5% · ≤ 14%
vs projection-3.2 R/100 · med
Game 1 · 9/4/2026
Acton Won off-script
2.0 IP · 0 R · 0 ER · 0 BB · 2 K · 18 P
Followed plan≤ −100% · ≥ 35%
Executed17% · ≤ 19%
vs projection+8.3 R/100 · med
Game 2 · 9/5/2026
Funderburk Small sample
1.0 IP · 0 R · 0 ER · 0 BB · 1 K · 11 P
Followed plan≤ −100% · ≥ 35%
Executed9% · ≤ 12%
vs projection+3.2 R/100
Game 2 · 9/5/2026
Hoffman Won off-script
1.1 IP · 0 R · 0 ER · 0 BB · 2 K · 17 P
Followed plan≤ −100% · ≥ 35%
Executed24% · ≤ 18%
vs projection+3.5 R/100 · med
Game 2 · 9/5/2026
Minter Won off-script
0.2 IP · 0 R · 0 ER · 0 BB · 2 K · 18 P
Followed plan+29% · ≥ 35%
Executed11% · ≤ 19%
vs projection+3.6 R/100 · med
Game 2 · 9/5/2026
Gómez Small sample
1.0 IP · 0 R · 0 ER · 0 BB · 1 K · 7 P
Followed plan≥ +100% · ≥ 35%
Executed14% · ≤ 16%
vs projection+8.8 R/100
Game 3 · 9/6/2026
Funderburk Execution miss
0.2 IP · 1 R · 1 ER · 1 BB · 1 K · 15 P
Followed plan+83% · ≥ 35%
Executed33% · ≤ 13%
vs projection-0.9 R/100 · low
Game 3 · 9/6/2026
Morris Plan held, outing didn't
1.0 IP · 2 R · 2 ER · 2 BB · 1 K · 23 P
2 walks
Followed plan+99% · ≥ 35%
Executed2 walks in 1.0 IP
vs projection+0.8 R/100 · low
Game 3 · 9/6/2026
T. Rogers Went off-plan
0.2 IP · 1 R · 1 ER · 1 BB · 1 K · 15 P
Followed plan+26% · ≥ 35%
Executed13% · ≤ 14% · close
vs projection-1.5 R/100 · low
Game 3 · 9/6/2026
Acton Went off-plan
0.1 IP · 4 R · 4 ER · 3 BB · 1 K · 31 P
3 walks4 runs in 0.1 IP
Followed plan≤ −100% · ≥ 35%
Executed3 walks in 0.1 IP
vs projection-4.0 R/100 · med
Game 3 · 9/6/2026
Nance Execution miss
1.0 IP · 1 R · 1 ER · 0 BB · 2 K · 20 P
Followed plan≥ +100% · ≥ 35%
Executed20% · ≤ 14%
vs projection-0.7 R/100 · low